Herb Cohen Online
Power Negotiations Institute

 

Last update: 08/12/2003

 


 

 

 

 

 


TERRORISM AS A NEGOTIATION 
BY OTHER MEANS

TO:  PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
FROM: HERB COHEN
DATE:

SEPTEMBER 18,  2001

             The catastrophe resulting from the terrorist attacks on New York City’s Twin Towers and the Pentagon  brings into focus the state of war that has existed for some time between America and those who despise our values and our way of life.  While the rest of the world has been exposed to this type of carnage for at least three decades[1],  albeit not of this magnitude, Americans believed themselves immune from such a lethal attack.

            So on September 11th our world changed dramatically with a shocking wake-up call, telling us that we are in the midst of a different kind of conflict.  Although there is no script for President Bush to follow (never before have we been the target of an unidentified foe), all indications are that this administration understands the difficulty and complexity of the nightmare we face in this protracted war against international Terrorism.  While it is essential that we have timely retaliation, every ton of bombs dropped on the bases of these radical fundamentalists and the states that harbor and support them, has the potential to produce more recruits, more fanatics, more martyrs and more atrocities.

            Thus the relatively powerless Islamic Fundamentalist Radicals have put us in a double bind.  By adapting Von Clauswitz’s dictum they are using terrorism as an extension of politics by other means.[2] In essence, they are attempting to negotiate with the United States and the West using the spectacle of an atrocity to affect our policies and behavior.

            It’s always hazardous to underestimate your foe especially when his audacity and cunning have already proven as appalling as his hatred and cruelty.  But the first tenet of any savvy negotiator is to understand the mindset of his adversary so you can then act to alter his cost/benefit calculus.  In the past they have only seen the benefits of their strategy, the departure of the Soviets from Afghanistan, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from South Lebanon and Saddan Hussein’s survival and expulsion of the U.N. Inspectors after the Gulf War. 

            Now, they have raised the stakes.  It is no small tour de force to have murdered so many innocent civilians, to have shattered the lives of so many families, to have brought the world’s financial capital to a standstill and to have produced such anxiety and fear in the viewing audience around the globe.

            Clearly, those most responsible for this atrocious act are associated with the umbrella organization, al-Qa’eda (the group), which is currently located in Afghanistan.  Although al-Qa’eda, comparable to a Western holding company, has consensus leadership (Ayman al Zawahiri and Muhammed Atef), its most visible spokesman has been Osama bin Laden.  Born in 1955 in Saudi Arabia of a Yemeni father and a Syrian mother he was raised with wealth and privilege, complete with nannies and tutors.  Indeed, he and his generation came of age during the flourishing power of OPEC, which created rising expectations throughout Arabdom.

            From all indications, bin Laden was not a devout Muslim nor especially interested in politics during his early years.  After graduating from King Abdul Aziz University in 1979 with a Civil Engineering degree, he was prepared to enter the family’s construction business when three events occurred in quick succession that changed his life.  First, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, a Muslim nation, then Anwar Sadat of Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel, a western nation established in the midst of the Arab Islamic world and finally Ayatollah Khomeini toppled the westernized Shah in Iran.  It was this last occurrence that he saw as a divinely inspired sign – Islam’s first victory over the West since the Ottoman Empire captured Constantinople in 1453.

            Motivated by a sudden religious imperative, bin Laden became a major fundraiser for the so-called “freedom fighters” who were recruited from the Muslim world to repel the Soviet invaders.  In the course of these endeavors he displayed considerable skill, magnetism and success.  Eventually he went to Afghanistan to personally dispense the proceeds of his philanthropic efforts and in due course established personal relationships with hundreds if not thousands of mujahedin  Indeed, he even fought in at least one decisive battle, which only enhanced his reputation.

            Meanwhile, when the Gulf War concluded and United States troops remained in Saudi Arabia his anger only grew.  He called it the  “occupation of the Arab Holy Land by American Crusader forces”.  Because of his willingness to grant interviews and a genius for self-promotion he became the most visible of the Radical Islamic Fundamentalists; and surviving President Clinton’s pinprick Cruise Missile attack has only increased his stature, making him an icon in the Islamic world.

            Obviously, he is not someone who can be intimidated by overwhelming force but rather a fanatic devoted with maniacal vehemence to do all that he can to rid his region and even the entire Islamic World of western influence.  From his perspective, the West not only invades and occupies the Muslim world, but also culturally and spiritually pollutes the Muslim soul.  Bin Laden and his extremist followers see the world moving towards a single global culture which is basically western—and they are threatened by this.

            So in the current post cold war era our conflict is no longer ideological, political or economic but a clash of civilizations.  The battle lines are between western modernity and the threat it presents to those who detest us not for what we’ve done but who we are and what we stand for.  For bin Laden and his followers the stereotype of “the American Lifestyle” consists of drugs, sex, rock and roll, materialism, scantily clad women, individual freedom, separation of church and state and a secular rule of law.  They consider all these ideas and concepts corrupting and corrosive, especially upon the youth in their traditional societies.

            Therefore, what are the objectives of Osama bin Laden’s militants?  First of all, they want the United States to remove its troops and support from the countries on the Arabian Peninsula (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait).  Secondly, we must discontinue in their words “the continuing aggression against the Iraqi people” (eliminating sactions and giving Saddam Hussein a free hand to develop weapons of mass destruction).  Thirdly to displace from all Muslim areas westerners and their influence (destruction of the State of Israel).  Finally, to overthrow even Muslim leaders who have strayed from their extreme idea of religious orthodoxy (expel the leaders of Jordan, Egypt, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia).

            Their strategy is to build a Pan-Islamic religious movement knitting together all radical Islamic fundamentalists.  From their mindset, this might be done by drawing the United States into indiscriminate and massive retaliatory responses that would attract Muslims around the globe to fight a “Holy War”.  After all, they believe that the call to prayer from a mosque in Cairo resonates in Kuala Lumpur.  Consequently, we must take great pains to build a coalition that contains Muslim nations plus religious leaders and scholars.  To be sure, in Islamic law there is no central authority or council and jihad can only come from a consensus.

            Most worrisome is the thought that in forging a front against these extremists that we might compromise our principles and values in the process.  In the past we did just that, when we denied our ally, the Shah of Iran, asylum, sent our Secretary of State to Syria repeatedly to fawn at the feet of Haffez al Assad one of the primary sponsors of terror and time and again warmly welcoming Yasser Arrafat to the White House, knowing that he and his associates were pioneers in the use of terror that included the murder of diplomats in Sudan and our citizens on the Achille Lauro.  Although the Israel-Arab struggle dominates the Middle East, it is but one flashpoint in the terrorist’s war on the West.  Israel is our staunchest ally in the Middle East and must not be asked to compromise or unduly sacrifice as we engage in coalition building.

            Beyond this, these radical Islamic fundamentalists see the United States and the West as being risk-adverse, unwilling to suffer civilian or even military casualties.  They heard about or remember our national trauma when the body bags came home from Viet Nam, the abortive Jimmy Carter desert classic where we invaded Iran with eight helicopters, the decision to bomb Kosovo for 78 days at an altitude of 15,000 feet to insure that we sustained no causalities and Bill Clinton’s use of million dollar cruise missiles in Afghanistan only to destroy tents that were vacated the week before.  What they believe is that if they can cause us to sustain considerable loss of human life and produce sufficient fear, that over time they will sap our morale and our will.

            Undoubtedly, there will be American military casualties and regrettably civilian casualties as well.  But that is the price of war, one that we did not start. Indeed we must fight these battles facing an evil and vicious adversary: a prolonged conflict, with new strategies and new tactics against an enemy that believes that they can intimidate us by their barbaric behavior and evil carnage.

……Herb Cohen

[1]    Since 1968 there have been more than 4,000 terrorist bombings and 500 skyjackings.

[2]    Carl Von Clauswitz  the German military strategist’s axiom that  “war is an extension of politics  by other  means.”

 

   
   

Articles and writings I would like to share….

What is it?
Why Us?
Who are they?
What do they want?
What’s the role of the Media? 
TERRORISM….…..What’s Next? 
  Also……  The Reality of Adversarial Negotiations
Letter to Colin Powell, Secretary of State
February, 2001



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